Background: The prevalence of asthma has been rising all over the world. The causes of this epidemic are still not completely known. In this study we aim to estimate the separate effects of age, period and birth cohort on the trends of asthma incidence in Italy. Methods: Individual information on the history of asthma was collected on 35,375 adults aged 20-64 and born from 1940 to 1989, who were randomly sampled from the general Italian population in 1990/93, 1998/2000 and 2007/10. Overall 3,295 subjects reported asthma from 1,293,801 person-years at risk. Age-specific incidence rates were estimated for both sexes using 5-year age classes in different cohorts and period. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the incidence rates by age, birth cohort and period in males and females. Results: Age, period and cohort showed significant independent effects (p<0.001) on incidence rates of asthma, which was greater in younger subjects and dramatically increased in recent generations. Males and females had significantly different age-trends of asthma incidence, with males having nearly 50% greater risk to develop asthma in the first decade of life and nearly 40% lower risk after the age of 30 compared with women. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the trend of asthma is still increasing in Italy, and that more recently born cohorts are at greater risk of developing the disease.
Age-period-cohort analysis of asthma incidence in Italy, from 1940 to 2010
Pesce, Giancarlo;LOCATELLI, Francesca;ACCORDINI, Simone;VERLATO, Giuseppe;DE MARCO, Roberto
2014-01-01
Abstract
Background: The prevalence of asthma has been rising all over the world. The causes of this epidemic are still not completely known. In this study we aim to estimate the separate effects of age, period and birth cohort on the trends of asthma incidence in Italy. Methods: Individual information on the history of asthma was collected on 35,375 adults aged 20-64 and born from 1940 to 1989, who were randomly sampled from the general Italian population in 1990/93, 1998/2000 and 2007/10. Overall 3,295 subjects reported asthma from 1,293,801 person-years at risk. Age-specific incidence rates were estimated for both sexes using 5-year age classes in different cohorts and period. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the incidence rates by age, birth cohort and period in males and females. Results: Age, period and cohort showed significant independent effects (p<0.001) on incidence rates of asthma, which was greater in younger subjects and dramatically increased in recent generations. Males and females had significantly different age-trends of asthma incidence, with males having nearly 50% greater risk to develop asthma in the first decade of life and nearly 40% lower risk after the age of 30 compared with women. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the trend of asthma is still increasing in Italy, and that more recently born cohorts are at greater risk of developing the disease.
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