CONCLUSIONS. The analysis of all the data available in 192 patients at 24 h from admission shows that only serum glucose above 250 mg/dL (13.88 mmol/L) and serum creatinine above 2 mg/dL (176.8 mumol/L) are prognostic factors of death (P < 0.0001). When, however, pathological chest X-rays are also considered in a subset of 149 patients, these and serum creatinine are prognostic factors of death with odd ratios of 2.9 (95% CL 1.3-6.3) and 9.4 (95% CL 2.2-40.7), respectively (P < 0.0001). BACKGROUND. In patients suffering from acute pancreatitis, neither Ranson scores nor Glasgow criteria evaluation at 24 h yield a sufficiently reliable prognosis of the risk of death from the first acute attack. METHODS. After excluding posttraumatic, postsurgical, and post-ERCP acute pancreatitis, we selected 192 consecutive patients admitted in the first instance to our center for a first attack, distinguishing between patients who died and patients who survived. We used Cox's model to analyze the prognostic weight of variables available within 24 h of admission (sex, age, alcohol intake, smoking habits, 17 biochemical tests, body mass index, chest X-rays, body temperature, and shock status). RESULTS. Seventeen (8.8%) patients died; mortality showed a decreasing trend over the period of years considered and was correlated, among other things, with necrotizing type of pancreatitis, idiopathic etiology, and shock status on admission.

Risk of death from acute pancreatitis. Role of early, simple "routine" data

BASSI, Claudio;FALCONI, Massimo;FRULLONI, Luca;DI FRANCESCO, Vincenzo;PEDERZOLI, Paolo;CAVALLINI, Giorgio
1996-01-01

Abstract

CONCLUSIONS. The analysis of all the data available in 192 patients at 24 h from admission shows that only serum glucose above 250 mg/dL (13.88 mmol/L) and serum creatinine above 2 mg/dL (176.8 mumol/L) are prognostic factors of death (P < 0.0001). When, however, pathological chest X-rays are also considered in a subset of 149 patients, these and serum creatinine are prognostic factors of death with odd ratios of 2.9 (95% CL 1.3-6.3) and 9.4 (95% CL 2.2-40.7), respectively (P < 0.0001). BACKGROUND. In patients suffering from acute pancreatitis, neither Ranson scores nor Glasgow criteria evaluation at 24 h yield a sufficiently reliable prognosis of the risk of death from the first acute attack. METHODS. After excluding posttraumatic, postsurgical, and post-ERCP acute pancreatitis, we selected 192 consecutive patients admitted in the first instance to our center for a first attack, distinguishing between patients who died and patients who survived. We used Cox's model to analyze the prognostic weight of variables available within 24 h of admission (sex, age, alcohol intake, smoking habits, 17 biochemical tests, body mass index, chest X-rays, body temperature, and shock status). RESULTS. Seventeen (8.8%) patients died; mortality showed a decreasing trend over the period of years considered and was correlated, among other things, with necrotizing type of pancreatitis, idiopathic etiology, and shock status on admission.
Acute pancreatitis; chest X-rays; death; outcome; prognosis; risk factors; severity
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11562/302657
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