Player's success prediction in rugby union: From youth performance to senior level placing

The study questioned if and to what extent specific anthropometric and functional characteristics measured in youth draft camps, can accurately predict subsequent career progression in rugby union. DESIGN: Original research. METHODS: Anthropometric and functional characteristics of 531 male players (U16) were retrospectively analysed in relation to senior level team representation at age 21-24. Players were classified as International (Int: National team and international clubs) or National (Nat: 1st, 2nd and other divisions and dropout). Multivariate analysis of variance (one-way MANOVA) tested differences between Int and Nat, along a combination of anthropometric (body mass, height, body fat, fat-free mass) and functional variables (SJ, CMJ, t15m, t30m, VO2max). A discriminant function (DF) was determined to predict group assignment based on the linear combination of variables that best discriminate groups. Correct level assignment was expressed as % hit rate. RESULTS: A combination of anthropometric and functional characteristics reflects future level assignment (Int vs. Nat). Players' success can be accurately predicted (hit rate=81% and 77% for Int and Nat respectively) by a DF that combines anthropometric and functional variables as measured at ∼15 years of age, percent body fat and speed being the most influential predictors of group stratification. CONCLUSIONS: Within a group of 15 year-olds with exceptional physical characteristics, future players' success can be predicted using a linear combination of anthropometric and functional variables, among which a lower percent body fat and higher speed over a 15m sprint provide the most important predictors of the highest career success.