Transizione digitale e transizione energetica: opportunità e vincoli

This article analyses the «twin transition» – digital and energy – as a strategy for Italy’s economic development and modernization, assessing: (I) objectives and state of progress; (II) planned public investments and total financing needs; and (III) expected macroeconomic returns. We highlight significant weaknesses in areas such as startup creation, the adoption of artificial intelligence, the availability of skilled human capital, and energy efficiency. Moreover, the scale of required investments far exceeds the capacity of public finances. At the same time, estimated macroeconomic returns are higher than the cost of public capital and, in most scenarios, also of private capital. The dual transition may therefore be crucial for overcoming productivity stagnation and addressing structural problems such as demographic decline and high energy costs. In this context, mobilizing private capital will be decisive. Capital markets remain insufficiently developed to channel adequate resources towards digital and green investments, and stronger European financial integration appears to be a necessary condition for the economic sustainability of the transition.