We study a dissipative version of the contact process, with mean-field interaction, which admits a simple epidemiological interpretation. The propagation of chaos and the corresponding normal fluctuations reveal that the noise present in the finite-size system induces oscillations with a nearly deterministic period and a randomly varying amplitude. This is reminiscent of the emergence of pandemic waves in real epidemics.

Noise-induced oscillations for the mean-field dissipative contact process

Dai Pra, Paolo;Marini, Elisa
2025-01-01

Abstract

We study a dissipative version of the contact process, with mean-field interaction, which admits a simple epidemiological interpretation. The propagation of chaos and the corresponding normal fluctuations reveal that the noise present in the finite-size system induces oscillations with a nearly deterministic period and a randomly varying amplitude. This is reminiscent of the emergence of pandemic waves in real epidemics.
2025
Mean field interacting particle systems, Contact Process, epidemics
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11562/1164350
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