Segregation and the onset of COVID-19 in American cities

Purpose – This paper investigates one of the potential costs of rising segregation in American cities by evaluating empirically the extent at which ethnic-based segregation contributes to the onset and the speed of propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach – Regression analysis based on matched data on early incidence of COVID-19 cases, segregation and covariates. Identification resorts on variations in segregation across MSAs and heterogeneity in the geography and timing of stay-at-home orders. Findings – One cross-MSA standard deviation increase in segregation leads to a significant and robust rise of COVID-19 cases of 8.7 per 100,000 residents across urban counties. Originality/value – Combines spatial data on COVID-19 cases and segregation; use of a new segregation measure; focus on early incidence of the pandemic and its drivers.