Are more GPs associated with a reduction in emergency hospital admissions? A quantitative study on GP referral in England

BackgroundRecent studies have found an association between access to primary care and accident and emergency attendances, with better access associated with lower attendances. Analyses of an association with emergency admissions, however, have produced conflicting findings.AimThis study investigated whether emergency admission rates in an area are associated with 1) the number of GPs, and 2) mean size of GP practice.Design and settingAnalysis was conducted utilising Hospital Episode Statistics, the numbers of GPs and GP practices, Office for National Statistics population data, Quality and Outcomes Framework prevalence data, and Index of Multiple Deprivation data, from 2004/2005 to 2011/2012. tor all practices in England.MethodRegression analysis of panel data with fixed effects to address 1) a potential two-way relationship between the numbers of GPs and emergency admissions, and 2) unobservable characteristics of GP practices.ResultsThere is riot a statistically significant relationship between the number of GPs in a primary care trust area arid the number of emergency admissions, when analysing all areas. In deprived areas, however. a higher number of GPs is associated with lower emergency admissions. There is also a lower emergency admission rate in areas in which practices are on average larger, holding GP supply constant.ConclusionAn increase in GPs was found to reduce emergency admissions in deprived areas, but not elsewhere. Areas in which GPs are concentrated into larger practices showed reduced levels of emergency admissions, all else being equal.