Background and aims: Vascular disease (VD), as assessed by history of myocardial infarction or peripheral artery disease or aortic plaque, increases stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF), and is a component of risk assessment using the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score. We investigated if systemic atherosclerosis as detected by ultrasound carotid plaque (CP) could improve the predictive value of the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score.Methods: We analysed data from the ARAPACIS study, an observational study including 2027 Italian patients with non-valvular AF, in whom CP was detected using Doppler Ultrasonography.Results: VD was reported in 351 (17.3%) patients while CP was detected in 16.6% patients. Adding CP to the VD definition leaded to higher VD prevalence (30.9%). During a median [IQR] follow-up time of 36 months, 56 (2.8%) stroke/TIA eventswere recorded. Survival analysis showed that conventional VD alone did not increase the risk of stroke (Log-Rank: 0.009, p = 0.924), while addition of CP to conventional VD was significantly associated to an increased risk of stroke (LR: 5.730, p = 0.017). Cox regression analysis showed that VD + CP was independently associated with stroke (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.05-3.01, p = 0.0318). Reclassification analysis showed that VD + CP allowed a significant risk reclassification when compared to VD alone in predicting stroke at 36 months (NRI: 0.192, 95% CI: 0.028-0.323, p = 0.032).Conclusions: In non-valvular AF patients the addition of ultrasound detection of carotid plaque to conventional VD significantly increases the predictive value of CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score for stroke. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Carotid plaque detection improves the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: The ARAPACIS Study

Minuz P;Romano S;
2017

Abstract

Background and aims: Vascular disease (VD), as assessed by history of myocardial infarction or peripheral artery disease or aortic plaque, increases stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF), and is a component of risk assessment using the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score. We investigated if systemic atherosclerosis as detected by ultrasound carotid plaque (CP) could improve the predictive value of the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score.Methods: We analysed data from the ARAPACIS study, an observational study including 2027 Italian patients with non-valvular AF, in whom CP was detected using Doppler Ultrasonography.Results: VD was reported in 351 (17.3%) patients while CP was detected in 16.6% patients. Adding CP to the VD definition leaded to higher VD prevalence (30.9%). During a median [IQR] follow-up time of 36 months, 56 (2.8%) stroke/TIA eventswere recorded. Survival analysis showed that conventional VD alone did not increase the risk of stroke (Log-Rank: 0.009, p = 0.924), while addition of CP to conventional VD was significantly associated to an increased risk of stroke (LR: 5.730, p = 0.017). Cox regression analysis showed that VD + CP was independently associated with stroke (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.05-3.01, p = 0.0318). Reclassification analysis showed that VD + CP allowed a significant risk reclassification when compared to VD alone in predicting stroke at 36 months (NRI: 0.192, 95% CI: 0.028-0.323, p = 0.032).Conclusions: In non-valvular AF patients the addition of ultrasound detection of carotid plaque to conventional VD significantly increases the predictive value of CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score for stroke. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Atherosclerosis
Atrial fibrillation
CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score
Carotid plaque
Stroke
Vascular disease
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Ankle Brachial Index
Atrial Fibrillation
Carotid Artery Diseases
Female
Humans
Incidence
Italy
Male
Plaque, Atherosclerotic
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Survival Rate
Ultrasonography, Doppler
Risk Assessment
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11562/1060170
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