COVID-19 vaccination uptake strongly predicts averted deaths of older people across Europe

Background: Nationwide COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) vaccination campaigns have been effective to avert as many as 51% deaths in people aged ≥60 years in the European region between December 2020 and November 2021, though broad heterogeneity has been observed in the percentage of averted deaths across the different European countries. Methods: We downloaded data of vaccine uptake and efficacy into an Excel Worksheet, and we then performed univariate (Spearman’s correlation) and multivariate (multiple linear regression analysis) correlations. Results: A significant linear association was found between the percentage of averted deaths of older people and percentage of vaccine uptake in each corresponding European country (Spearman’s correlation: r=0.872; p<0.001), though such relationship was even better fitted by using an exponential curve (r=0.881; p<0.001). In multiple linear regression analysis, the percentage of deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccination remained independently associated with vaccine uptake (p<0.001), but not with the type of vaccine administered (p=0.264). Conclusions: The results of analysis support the foremost importance of reinforcing nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, especially in those countries where vaccination programmes have been less successful.