Referring to the literature on optimal stopping under sequential sampling developed by Chernoff and collaborators, we present a dynamic model of the evaluation of a new health technology, deriving optimal rules for research abandonment and continuation and technology adoption as functions of sample size. We explore the model's applicability in a preliminary analysis of the economic evaluation of Drug Eluting Stents (DES). A key finding is that referring to a single cost-effectiveness threshold, irrespective of other economic dimensions to the decision, may be sub-optimal.
Optimal sequential sampling rules for the economic evaluation of health technologies
PERTILE, Paolo;
2010-01-01
Abstract
Referring to the literature on optimal stopping under sequential sampling developed by Chernoff and collaborators, we present a dynamic model of the evaluation of a new health technology, deriving optimal rules for research abandonment and continuation and technology adoption as functions of sample size. We explore the model's applicability in a preliminary analysis of the economic evaluation of Drug Eluting Stents (DES). A key finding is that referring to a single cost-effectiveness threshold, irrespective of other economic dimensions to the decision, may be sub-optimal.
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