This special topic makes two contributions to the analysis of the pandemic crisis and our way out of it over the forecast horizon. First, through the lens of a model-based growth decomposition of the Commission’s 2020 autumn forecast, it brings light to how shocks triggered by the pandemic have shaped both this year and the outlook for the following years. It is among the first to offer such an analysis of the ‘economic nature’ of the pandemic using an estimated structural macroeconomic model, based on data up to 2020- Q2. This information is used to create two alternative scenarios for the future trajectory of the European economy in a second step.
Special issue 1 “The road out of the crisis remains bumpy and uncertain”
Lorenzo Frattarolo;
2020-01-01
Abstract
This special topic makes two contributions to the analysis of the pandemic crisis and our way out of it over the forecast horizon. First, through the lens of a model-based growth decomposition of the Commission’s 2020 autumn forecast, it brings light to how shocks triggered by the pandemic have shaped both this year and the outlook for the following years. It is among the first to offer such an analysis of the ‘economic nature’ of the pandemic using an estimated structural macroeconomic model, based on data up to 2020- Q2. This information is used to create two alternative scenarios for the future trajectory of the European economy in a second step.
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
