This Special Topic updates the growth decomposition and scenario analysis for the euro area that was conducted in previous forecasts. The first section quantifies the unobserved drivers behind the outlook for GDP growth in the forecast baseline through the lens of an estimated structural macroeconomic model. The second section presents the economic effects of alternative paths for selected key drivers, with afocus on the evolution of household savings.
Special issue 1 “The role of savings in determining the recovery path”.
Lorenzo Frattarolo;
2021-01-01
Abstract
This Special Topic updates the growth decomposition and scenario analysis for the euro area that was conducted in previous forecasts. The first section quantifies the unobserved drivers behind the outlook for GDP growth in the forecast baseline through the lens of an estimated structural macroeconomic model. The second section presents the economic effects of alternative paths for selected key drivers, with afocus on the evolution of household savings.
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