Special issue 1: Medium-term projections of potential GDP growth in turbulent times.

The large shocks that have hit the EU economy in recent years and the policy responses have increased uncertainty about future growth. The last three years have been marked by intense, mostly temporary, supply and demand shocks. To confront the negative effects of the pandemic and the war-induced disruptions, massive policy initiatives have been deployed by the EU and its Member States. These effects come on top of the pre-existing pressure on future potential economic growth from ageing and the secular slowdown of total factor productivity. Changes in the pattern of globalisation, production methods and household behaviour could also shape potential output well beyond the current decade. This special issue analyses the extent to which projections of potential growth up to 2027 have changed in view of the various shocks affecting the EU economy.