Special issue: alternative scenarios on the economic outlook

In the context of a complex and fast-changing geopolitical and economic environment, this Special Topic assesses the potential impact of the realisation of key risks to the baseline forecast presented in this publication. The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, through the lens of an estimated macroeconomic model, it identifies the driving forces shaping past and projected output and price dynamics. Then this identification is used to define alternative scenarios in terms of the potential evolution of energy prices and supplies, trade, uncertainty, and consumer confidence.