SARS-CoV-2 positive tests efficiently predict pressure on healthcare system

COVID-19 has invested virtually all healthcare systems worldwide, with such a violent impact that quality care delivery has been dramatically jeopardized. Higher alertness and preparedness for facing and managing local outbreaks would be necessary for preserving conventional or contingency care, provided that reliable indicators of epidemic trends are available. The number of quarantined people was better associated with total or percent new SARS-CoV-2 daily positive cases in the same day, whilst the strongest associations of new daily healthcare pressure indicators and new daily number or percent of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases was delayed by ~2 weeks. A sub-analysis of data during the so-called 2nd wave of Italian outbreak (between June 24 and November 12, 2020), revealed that new SARS-CoV-2 daily diagnoses anticipated daily hospitalizations (total, in ICU and non-ICU wards) by 4-6 days and daily deaths by 14 days, whilst the percentage of new SARS-CoV-2 daily positive cases anticipated daily hospitalizations (total, in ICU and non-ICU wards) by 9-10 days and deaths by 11 days, respectively.